An un-scheduled press conference (and in the Rose Garden no less)? This is odd in and of itself in the weird world that is the White House press corps, but I don't think anyone knew how strange it would actually turn out.

The President held the conference accompanied by Secretary of State Colin Powell. The reporters present assumed the conference perhaps had something to do with the equally odd surprise announcement of an "emergency summit" which will occur Sunday in the Azores. Yeah, this is when I start calling people to make sure I haven't finally lost touch with reality. Well, it seems I'm still sane - I wish I could say the same for our government.

So about this press conference: I was listening to Maine Public Radio and the host of the program breaks in to inform listeners that they would be switching over to National Public Radio momentarily to cover a press conference during which the President and the Secretary of State were expected to make some remarks.

NPR takes over. The conference begins. The President makes a short 2 or 3 minute speech about Israel and Palestine living in peace with one another, and then he turns and leaves! Colin Powell turned on his heel to follow the President as the press corps began shouting questions about the summit. The reaction from the NPR host in the studio and reporters on the scene was more or less similar to mine: WTF?

Yeah, this whole thing is getting a little out of hand at this point. Something has gone terribly, terribly wrong for the administration's plan to wage indiscriminant war in the Middle East. I'm laughing at their superior intellect.

Here's the break down: Bush had planned to visit Blair - those plans were scrubbed this week as it appeared increasingly unlikely that the UN Security Council would bend to US pressure on the Second Resolution. Blair of course is suffering continued attacks at home over his pro-war stance, and is being condemned by his own party as Bush's lap dog. Naturally something had to give eventually. Remember, this was a strange pairing to begin with; Blair is essentially Briton's Bill Clinton.

So what happens? A press conference in which Bush tries to turn down the heat he's taking from ignoring the war going on right now between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and also to introduce an interesting turn of phrase to the current geo-political lexicon: "step-by-step." Could it be that the US is ready to pursue the British compromise plan for dealing with Iraq? Will it float in the Security Council?

It's a hell of a gamble. This is after all a pissing contest in the end, and Bush has suffered some major set-backs already. First he wanted to act without UN support, but was convinced by Powell and Blair to form a real international coalition before unilaterally deposing the government of one of the wealthiest sovereign nations on Earth. Then there was the tussle over the first resolution, 1441. Bush took it in stride and waited. He was sure that by the time he had his troops in place the UN would be ready to play ball. What he didn't count on was Russia. Sure, France had given the US a hard time with the first resolution, but the administration had figured Russia would play along. They figured wrong. With Russia on its side, France was able to form a voting block. Hell, even China started to toy with the idea of opposing the US. So the Second Resolution is dead in the water. What's next?

Meeting in the Azores is interesting symbolically. Neither Bush nor Blair is visiting the other's nation and twisting arms. No, they're both traveling half-way to meet one another. They are committed to war as a final option, and to make every diplomatic attempt to solve this situation in the meantime. That's the message they're trying to send anyway. The result will either be a new push for the British step-by-step plan (which France has already balked at), or a claim that everything that could be done was, and that unilateral action is now permissible by international law. (There's also the wild outside chance that Saddam will touch off a conflict himself before either the UN or the US makes a move. I believe the world would be highly suspicious of US covert action in this case however given the number of special forces troops already on the ground in Iraq).

Either way, war in Iraq will happen. But it's still nice to see Bush have to jump through these hoops. I only wish there were some way to convince him to just bring the troops home, and re-think his global strategy. Clearly, Bush has been a gambling man throughout these several months of diplomacy, and he hasn't won a single hand yet. Can there be any more indication that his administration's policies are simply unsound?

What happens when the President bets the farm?

Labels: Colin Powell, George W. Bush, iraq, maine, resolution 1441, tony blair, UN