The United States continues to ignore diplomatic options in its handling of the North Korean problem. Time and again our administration has ignored pleas from the international community and policy experts within our own government to engage North Korea in a meaningful dialogue before the situation escalates beyond non-military resolution.

Today, as the U.S. makes the most of the North Korean intercept of one of our reconnaissance planes - which is a much more common occurrence than most of the American public likely realizes - the administration has further isolated North Korea by deploying long range bombers to Guam.

Add this to the fast track deployment of an untested missile defense system on our west coast, and the administration’s long term policy plans for the region begin to come into focus. But there’s something here that just doesn’t sit right for me: Guam.

I understand that these are long range bombers, but why Guam? Why not Japan? Hell, why not South Korea? If the administration is honestly attempting to intimidate North Korea into compliance with the non-proliferation treaty while refusing to debate a non-aggression pact, why not put those bombers right in North Korea’s backyard?

I have a couple of thoughts on this.

First, it may be that Japan doesn’t want to play host to these U.S. forces due to fears of North Korean retribution. This makes sense, but seeing as how Japan would probably be a target of North Korean aggression should a conflict occur anyway, I find it unlikely that Japan would refuse the back-up protection.

Secondly, it may be that the administration is sensitive to inadvertently touching off a conflict with an increasingly skittish North Korea by pushing too hard, too fast. Given the complete lack of subtly in the administration’s past policy calls, I doubt this as well.

That leaves us with a third possibility – the one I consider most likely: North Korea’s missile technology is much more advanced than our administration is willing to admit. If this is true, and targets in South Korea and Japan are within range, then Guam is the only place we can put our bombers.

This would also explain an unusual story from the Korea Times today that stated that a warhead launched in a North Korean missile test was found in Alaska. If true, this has dramatic implications for our current foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

I’d like to believe that the Alaska story is a bit of over-zealous reporting on the part of the South Korean press, but the Guam thing is really bugging me.

I sincerely hope that I am very, very wrong on this. If I’m not, and the administration continues on its present course, there will be a nuclear crisis in a matter of months. It doesn’t matter which nation is the ultimate victim of that crisis; it may be the U.S., it may be Japan or South Korea, it may even be North Korea itself. The bottom line is that it doesn’t have to happen at all.

Unless our administration pulls its head out of its ass, expect to become well versed in the economic consequences of fighting a two-front war in the very near future.

Labels: aei, Donald Rumsfeld, neocon, new american century, North Korea