alive, and back on my ass
Sunday, March 30, 2003

I am alive, and back on my ass - soon to be on my feet - after surgery this week. Trapped in a hospital without Internet access for a week damn near killed me, but now I'm back. I'm still highly medicated, and I can think of no better time than now to start posting to this blog again. Call it a restart.

Speaking of which, how about that war? WTF? I'm out of it for a little while and everyone starts having delusions of grandeur.

Donald Rumsfeld wants a do-over? His strategy has backdoored our troops who are now entrenched the middle of the desert, without supplies, surrounded by hostile forces. Can anyone tell me how this can get any worse?

Let's pretend we don't know anything about Vietnam, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, or Northern Ireland for a moment. No wait, I forgot, we can't; our troops are fucked, and it's all the Bush Administration's fault. It was bad enough that they got us into this war by screwing-up diplomatic efforts to disarm Iraq without war, now they're practically admitting that their grand strategy was a bluff, and that thousands of US lives depend on the re-establishment of secure supply lines throughout the entirety of country about the size of California...Without over-flight rights. Yeah, that shouldn't take too long. All the while there will be body bags coming home.

So now what? How the hell do we get our troops home? We have two options.

1. Call a cease-fire: Pullout now. Go to the UN and apologize. Send Rumsfeld, Perle, and Cheney - or any other assortment of Administration officials - down the river. That's right - send them to jail. They screwed this up, and the only way to keep it from getting worse is to crack a few eggs - just like they're willing to do with our troops. Either it's these millionaire bastards going to The Hague and eating bon bons with other moronic nation-ruling fat cats, or it’s our troops in the desert over several months of uncertain conflict. Sorry, but if we can simultaneously pull out of the war, rebuild relationships with the world community on a diplomatic level, and throw a bone to the Muslims of the world who are none too fucking happy right now, I say do it. If this is horribly unpalatable to red-blooded, freedom loving Americans, then there is always option two.

2. Do it. Fire Rumsfeld. Appoint Norman Schwarzkopf Secretary of Defense, and allow the Pentagon to do its job: fight this war. Congress gives the troops every red cent they need to take Iraq, and more importantly gives them permission to take Iraq by any means necessary. You want this war over quick, then you damn well better be willing to kill every male Muslim in the Middle East old enough to even think about fighting back. Black-ops, CIA operations, drug and weapons swaps, black market economic destabilization, and old school Iran-Contra style deception. I'm talking about a police state that covers the entirety of the Middle East. Oh, someone from Iran was found in Iraq with a gun? Guess what pal you just got yourself a problem with the big dog. This of course will lead to mass civilian casualties in several nations and worldwide hatred for the United States and everything we claim to stand for - but we'll have won the war!

There is no middle ground here. There can be no appeasement. Either we take responsibility for our actions as a nation, and fire a couple of big names from the administration, make examples of them, and call it a day, or we fight this war as if our very survival on the face of this planet depended on it. Anything else will only lead to more delay and more death. The lives of our fellow Americans are worth far more the lives of the scum that have sent them into this war.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it. And please hope for a swift and just end to this horrible tragedy.

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Ban it or tax it?
Friday, March 21, 2003

Congress Wants to Regulate Web Wagering

Legalizing online gambling for Americans with restrictions similar to those imposed on land-based casinos would have enormous implications for the gambling industry. It is estimated that as much as 60 percent of all offshore gambling dollars come from Americans and a U.S. seal of approval would almost assuredly bring the major commercial casino operators into the online game.

Why are we sending these revenues out of America? Because gambling is bad. Evil in fact. We deliver millions of dollars every day to companies outside the US because "unlicensed gambling lures minors and young adults, particularly college students armed with credit cards, into a potentially dangerous vice; sinks the hooks of addiction even deeper into compulsive gamblers who are willing to bet baby's new shoes on virtual craps; and serves as a conduit for organized crime to launder dirty money."

Instead of legalizing and taxing - always a good way to deal with vice - Congress wants to attempt to ban online gambling. You know, like they want to ban file-trading.

This is going to be great.

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Tighten those belts a few notches

House Narrowly Passes $2.2 Trillion Budget

WASHINGTON, March 21 — Voting largely along party lines, the House early today narrowly approved a 10-year budget plan that would allow the deep tax cuts President Bush has proposed.

The Republican-controlled House approved its plan by a vote of 215 to 212. The legislation calls for a $2.2 trillion budget for the 2004 fiscal year that includes $726 billion in tax cuts that the White House has proposed.


This is a record high budget that some believe could seriously damage the economic outlook of the US for the foreseeable future. The budget DOES NOT yet include any funding for the ongoing war in Iraq. The Bush administration has told the American people and the US Congress that it would request even more money to pay for the present operations and any occupation afterwards.

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A deepening rift

Two US pilots accused of killing four, and wounding eight Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan last year in a friendly-fire bombing received a slap-on-the-wrist at the conclusion of trial which was closely followed by an angry Canada.

Canadians were outraged from the beginning of this ordeal when it took President Bush two days to publicly apologize for the incident.

Why is this administration so intent on burning bridges?

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North Korea accuses South Korea of resuming propaganda by loudspeaker at the DMZ in violation of a historic summit agreement between the two nations in 2000.

Additionally, the North alleges the current US-South Korean annual military drills were deliberately "timed to coincide with the US attack on Iraq." They believe this is an indication of US plans to initiate a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear facilities.

North Korea, Iraq, and Iran were identified by President Bush as the "Axis of Evil."

The US has ignored several opportunities in the past few months to engage North Korea diplomatically. It is the Bush administration's policy to encourage other Asia-Pacific nations (Japan, China, South Korea, and Russia) to take the lead in dealing with (i.e. paying-off) North Korea. North Korea refuses to deal with anyone but the US, and insists that a non-aggression pact be a major part of any such dealings.

This situation will get worse before it gets better.

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SUVs: The volkswagon of the Bush Regime

Fuel Economy Regulations Could be Revised

DETROIT, March 20 — The Bush administration is considering changes to fuel economy regulations that would encourage manufacturers to offer more large cars, station wagons and smaller sport utility vehicles that are built more like cars...

But the idea is opposed by environmentalists and has already drawn a sharply worded protest from the United Automobile Workers union. Both are concerned, for different reasons, that the Big Three will stop making small cars because they lose money making them and will no longer be compelled to.

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The squeaky wheel

Pentagon Adviser Is Also Advising Global Crossing

Lawyers said today that Mr. Perle had been helping Global Crossing for several weeks. They said he was brought in as a prominent Republican with close ties to the current officials. He has taken on a particularly important role, they said, since the company recently pulled back its request for the government to clear the sale in the face of opposition from the Defense Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Those agencies have said that the proposed deal presents national security and law enforcement problems, because it would put Global Crossing's worldwide fiber optics network — one used by the United States government — under Chinese ownership...

According to lawyers involved in the review and a legal notice that Global Crossing is preparing to file soon in bankruptcy court, Mr. Perle is to be paid $725,000...

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U.S. Ready to Rescind Clinton Order on Government Secrets

The Bush administration has been busy tweaking various policies concerning the operation of our government while world media and attention are focused on the war in Iraq. I find this troubling to say the least.

Having spent the last 24-hours nearly absorbed in the coverage of the war I have come close to ignoring these seemingly minor events myself. I have however made note of them, and I plan to watch for consequences of these tweaks in the future.

I will continue to comment on major occurrences in Iraq.

I will not continue to keep a precise - moment-to-moment - log of these tragic events.

We can no longer hope to prevent the death of innocents. We can not stop this war. Now it is up to us to ensure that it is fought justly, and that our troops are brought home as soon as possible. Equally important is that we ensure that the America they come home to is not a nation under siege by its own government. We must pay attention - it's that simple.

Beyond the bread and circus:

U.S. Ready to Rescind Clinton Order on Government Secrets

WASHINGTON, March 20 — Making it easier for government agencies to keep documents secret, the Bush administration plans to revoke an order issued by President Bill Clinton that among other provisions said information should not be classified if there was "significant doubt" as to whether its release would damage national security.

The new policy is outlined in a draft executive order being circulated among federal agencies. A final version is expected to be adopted before April 17, when the last elements of the Clinton order would take effect, requiring automatic declassification of most documents 25 or more years old. Under the draft, such automatic declassification would be postponed until Dec. 31, 2006.

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US Anti-War Protests Flare
Thursday, March 20, 2003

US Anti-War Protests Flare, More Than 1,000 Arrests

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Police arrested more than 1,000 people in San Francisco on Thursday -- the most demonstrators taken into custody on a single day in the city in 22 years -- as tens of thousands protested across America against the U.S. war in Iraq.

"If this was happening in every city, there would either be martial law or an end to war," said one Berkeley student who chained himself to 16 others on a major San Francisco street.

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Live video feed from Baghdad restored

Live video feed from Baghdad back up: new angle.

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Twelve US and four British personnel killed

BBC reports:

Twelve US and four British personnel killed in helicopter crash in Kuwait. More soon.

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Live video feed from Baghdad gone

CNN's "Live video feed from Baghdad" has gone dead. Can anyone else confirm this? E-mail me: ernestlombardi@yahoo.com

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Marine Chopper Down

Drudge:

MARINE CHOPPER DOWN IN KUWAIT; CREW FEARED LOST

Also confirmed on Fox News and MSNBC.

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Fog of War

WTF? Why is this being announced today in the fog of war?

Texan to Lead House Cybersecurity Panel

Congressional leaders have picked Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-Texas) to lead a new congressional subcommittee on cybersecurity, a House spokeswoman said today.

Thornberry will head the subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Science, Research and Development. The panel is part of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security, which was created last month to oversee the new Department of Homeland Security.


Who is Mac Thornberry you ask? He introduced a little bill to congress last year H.R. 1158. That bill established a new cabinet-level dpartment: The Department of Homeland Security.

I have a very bad feeling about this.

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Al Jazeera in Mosul Reports Explosions

DUBAI (Reuters) - Mosul has been rocked by explosions, a reporter in the northern Iraqi city for Al Jazeera television said on Friday.

Mosul lies in the far north of Iraq, just outside a Kurdish-run zone and some 60 miles south of the Turkish border.

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Singing

There are prayers being sung this morning in Baghdad. They are clearly audible on the live feed. Christ, this is the eeriest fucking thing I have ever witnessed. How many of these people will be dead in a few hours? Is this they're last prayer?

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Huge Explosions Seen Toward Basra from Kuwait

NORTHERN KUWAIT (Reuters) - Huge explosions lit the night sky in the direction of the southern Iraqi city of Basra early on Friday, a Reuters witness said from near the Iraq-Kuwait border.

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CNN video feed

I definitely hear birds on the CNN video feed now - and still a lot vehicular activity. It’s strange to think of Baghdad as just a city; Sleeping right now - as much as it can - in the lull of bombing and sirens. I’m listening to the birds chirp wildly in the relative silence of the night. It’s so easy to imagine it’s my city, Portland, in the summer. My windows are open and I can hear life beginning to stir in the hours before the dawn. Soon enough, I’ll no doubt be violently shaken from this peaceful reverie by the air raid sirens, then the bombing will begin. It will likely be the awful display that the world has been promised: Shock and Awe. It disgusts me that this city – so much like any other city on Earth - will be subjected to that horror. All I can do now is listen and wait for the inevitable. When the birds no longer sing I will curse this administration and the senseless destruction it has wrought.

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Turkish parliament authorizes soldiers to enter Iraq

It's confirmed: Turkish leaders have stated that they can move troops into Northern Iraq.

"Immediately after Thursday's airspace vote, the Turkish parliament also authorized Turkish soldiers to enter northern Iraq to create what would amount to a buffer zone."

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Live video feed from Baghdad

Listening to the CNN Live video feed from Baghdad, I swear I can hear several heavy vehicles driving by. Damn I wish I could maneuver the camera via the web.

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road to is now open

British Commandos seize Al Faw Peninsula and the border town of Umm Qasr.

BBC Radio reports that the "road to Basra is now open."

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Regan Gets Life for Offering to Sell Secrets to Iraq, China

Via Fox News:

ALEXANDRIA, Va. — Brian Patrick Regan was sentenced to life in prison without parole Thursday for offering to sell U.S. intelligence secrets to Saddam Hussein and the Chinese government.

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US forces in western Iraq

Via BBC:

"Unconfirmed Israeli reports of US forces in western Iraq to thwart possible missiles"

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Can we expect this type of crack-down in the US?

Via CNet:

Israel warns Web sites on war coverage

WASHINGTON--Israel's top government censor has warned Web sites in her country not to publish sensitive information about the war with Iraq.

Chief Censor Rachel Dolev sent a letter on Wednesday to "scoop" news sites, instructing editors to seek government permission before publishing information about "materials that could pose a threat to the security of the State of Israel and its residents."

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All clear sounded in Baghdad

BBC:

All clear sounded in Baghdad, Iraqi state television confirms hostilities in south

Expect more military activity once prime time hits the east coast: 8:00 PM EST

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Update:

From Reuters:

Iraq claims responsibility for downed US Special Forces helicopter.

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police unearth 4 tonnes of bomb-making chemicals

Via The Straights Times:

KL police unearth 4 tonnes of bomb-making chemicals

KUALA LUMPUR -- Malaysian police announced a major breakthrough in the campaign against terrorism on Thursday, saying they had found a long-sought cache of four tonnes of ammonium nitrate, a key bomb-making ingredient.

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Web Sites Vandalized With Antiwar Messages

Washington Post TechNews:

A hacker group marred hundreds of Web sites with digital graffiti last night in an apparent response to the onset of the U.S.-led war against Iraq, prompting security experts to warn of further cyberattacks in the days to come.

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Apache helicopter downed

Via MSNBC:

An Apache helicopter has been downed in Iraq, 2 crew members "OK."

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Two birds with one stone?

Via Sydney Morning Herald, Australia:

US raid to snare bin Laden

"A thousand American troops raided a region of Afghanistan known to be occupied by al-Qa'eda and Taliban fighters in a bid to snare Osama bin Laden and his sons yesterday."

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Ricin found in Paris

Via BBC:

"Traces of the poison ricin have been found inside a locker at a railway station in Paris, according to the French interior ministry."

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abandoned homes seized and occupied

An NPR correspondent in Baghdad has reported that the Republican Guard has entered civilian areas of the city, and have seized and occupied homes abandoned by Iraqi civilians who have left the city.

The current air strikes are targeting military and government facilities in Baghdad. It seems the Guard is avoiding the attacks altogether, and will likely be prepared to face US troops in the streets of Baghdad when they arrive.

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Worldwide Alert Issued for Saudi Terror Suspect

The FBI issues a "Worldwide Alert Issued for Saudi Terror Suspect"

Adnan G. El Shukrijumah's last known location was Miami, Florida. He is described as 27, about 5-foot-4 and 132 pounds or heavier. He may or may not be wearing a beard.

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Air raid sirens in Baghdad

Air raid sirens in Baghdad. Live.

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More important news buried in the war coverage

From ZDNet:

"DMCA goes under public scrutiny again"

The Library of Congress' Copyright Office said on Thursday that it will hold a series of public hearings over the next two months in Washington, D.C. and California to decide what changes, if any, should be made to the section of the DMCA that restricts bypassing copy-protection schemes.

Anyone with strong feelings about the DMCA, one way or another, may submit a request by Apr. 1 to testify during the public forums, the Copyright Office said in its announcement. The hearing dates in the U.S. capital will be Apr. 11, Apr. 15 and May 2.

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The Last Super

President's "press conference" was a quick broadcast from inside the Cabinet meeting room (Have to love The Last Super imagery).

The president thanked US troops and asserted that the Cabinet members were "confident about the future of our country."

Was this a pre-emptive strike to prevent resignations of protest?

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"Arab World Erupts in Fury Over Iraq Attack"

Violence in Cairo, Eygypt and Manila, Philippines. Protests in most major cities world-wide.

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Via The Washington Post

"IN THE FIELD: Beginning of War Surprises Crew"

Troops in the field were not alerted to the decapitation plan. They had prepared all this time for shock and awe. Will this effect the success of the operation?

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the delicate diplomatic situation in Turkey

White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer’s press conference this morning. One major item of note is the administration’s handling of the delicate diplomatic situation in Turkey.

The Turkish government has allowed the US to utilize its nation as a staging ground for a Northern Front in the war on Iraq. But at what cost?

The original diplomatic deal called for huge aid packages to be paid to Turkey, but were contingent upon that nation’s cooperation with a proviso that they would not invade Northern Iraq themselves to attack Kurdish positions in that area. The deal reached today contains no such caveat.

The Kurds have been left in the lurch once again.

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Live State Department briefing

A major crack down on democratic activists and independent journalists yesterday and today in Cuba is "outrageous."

This comes on the heels of yesterday's highjacking of a Cuban airliner by five individuals "seeking political asylum." They are now in the custody of federal authorities in Florida.

Cuba is claiming covert US instigation.

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"I think the Iraqi leadership is coming apart..."

NPR reporter embedded with US troops: "I think the Iraqi leadership is coming apart...I think last night's mission was a success."

His analysis is based on troop movements and postures on the front line right now. He says that things are not going as planned, and that in the last hour there has been a major turning point in the war.

Is it over? Or is he misinterpreting the situation?

A general in the studio is interpreting that the posture may be a psychological operation against Iraqi leadership - a minor show of force to encourage them to believe that there is still hope to end conflict before it "starts" by surrendering.

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press conference

Via The Agonist:

U.S. President George W. Bush will convene a press conference at 2:45 p.m. EST.

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disappeared on refresh

A link to a major story appeared briefly on Google News then disappeared on refresh. I tracked it and listed it below. The link is currently dead, but I listed it anyway in the event that it comes back up later. As always, I can not vouch for the source:

From Google News:

"Report: Saddam son suffers from brain hemorrhage"
Albawaba Middle East News, Jordan - 2 hours ago
Uday, the elder son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, struck by brain hemorrhage
following conflict with a member of Saddam's Fedayeen on Thursday. ...

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helicopter down

A downed US Special Forces helicopter with survivors? Forgive me if I’m a bit incredulous. When is the last time you remember a helicopter crash with survivors?

Is it possible? Absolutely. However, passengers on a military helicopter are not sitting in nice cushy chairs with shoulder straps on. These people are laden with equipment – much of which is “loose” in the cabin. When one of these aircraft goes down, it goes down hard.

Consider the headlines and effects on troop moral if, in the first hours of an unsuccessful assault on Saddam Hussein, the US suffered its first combat casualties. It would be devastating.

I believe that in a morning full of misinformation, back-pedaling and political double-speak, we must be vigilant in weighing the validity of information coming from the field of battle. Who set those oil field fires for instance? Why did they ignite 3 or 4? Why not 50? 100?

The history of this war is being written right now. We must be critical in our consumption of information – no source must be accorded any privilege of blind trust.

Equally important is that we, as Americans, keep close watch on what else occurs in our government as this war progresses. Major decisions are being made on several key issues as 24-hour war coverage holds most of our attention. Such as:

"Top White House anti-terror boss resigns"
"US offers Israel billions in aid"
"No-flags order causes a flap along the front line"

As the NSA drills into its employees and conscripts: "In God we Trust. Everyone else, we monitor."

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Worst case scenario

A “last minute” gambit has failed (Are we all getting used to this yet?). The US strikes against Baghdad – intended to kill Saddam Hussein himself – were a major failure.

Not only is Saddam Hussein still alive, but the carefully laid war plan of Shock and Awe – a plan which took months to conceive and implement – is now virtually useless.

Shock and Awe was supposed to draw Iraqi forces into surrender through surprise and psychological intimidation. President George W. Bush threw that plan aside yesterday afternoon in an Oval Office meeting. Shock and Awe was replaced by a shoot-from-the-hip strategy to kill Saddam Hussein and his top military leaders in one fell swoop – a surgical strike employing the very best of America’s intelligence and technology (Think of the headlines!). The “Decapitation” plan had many advantages.

Shock and Awe called for 3,000 bombs and missiles to be dropped in the first forty-eight hours of conflict. Decapitation utilized only 24 cruise missiles and a hand full of bombs. Politically, economically, and militarily Decapitation was superior, if it worked.

It didn’t, and we will now witness the consequences of our administration’s folly.

Shock and Awe is on the garbage heap, this is now a conventional urban war: The Pentagon’s worst case scenario.

US troops must now overcome an emboldened Iraqi Army entrenched in Baghdad. They have trained to face a cowering one. The Iraqi troops will not surrender easily – their leader has taken the first hit of the war and has lived to tell the tale. The administration has made Saddam Hussein a hero: Worst case scenario.

US military planners - after months of intelligence collection, analysis, battle planning, training and deployment – must now go back to the drawing board as US troops march through the desert. Again, this is the worst case scenario.

Saddam Hussein now knows that the eyes and ears of the US intelligence community are on him – he will use that knowledge to his advantage. Need I say it again?

President Bush made the decision, he will be personally responsible for every American life lost in Iraq. Military leaders in the field will not forget this.

Can it be any worse?

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Sirens go off in Baghdad
Wednesday, March 19, 2003

via Drudge, WashPost.

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A statement by Governor Howard Dean of Vermont

Tonight, for better or worse, America is at war. Tonight, every American, regardless of party, devoutly supports the safety and success of our men and women in the field. Those of us who, over the past 6 months, have expressed deep concerns about this President's management of the crisis, mistreatment of our allies and misconstruction of international law, have never been in doubt about the evil of Saddam Hussein or the necessity of removing his weapons of mass destruction.

Those Americans who opposed our going to war with Iraq, who wanted the United Nations to remove those weapons without war, need not apologize for giving voice to their conscience, last year, this year or next year. In a country devoted to the freedom of debate and dissent, it is every citizen's patriotic duty to speak out, even as we wish our troops well and pray for their safe return. Congressman Abraham Lincoln did this in criticizing the Mexican War of 1846, as did Senator Robert F. Kennedy in calling the war in Vietnam "unsuitable, immoral and intolerable."

This is not Iraq, where doubters and dissenters are punished or silenced --this is the United States of America. We need to support our young people as they are sent to war by the President, and I have no doubt that American military power will prevail. But to ensure that our post-war policies are constructive and humane, based on enduring principles of peace and justice, concerned Americans should continue to speak out; and I intend to do so.


Howard Dean needs us to win the Democratic primaries. Be sure that you are registered to vote. Be sure that your registration indicates Democrat as your party of preference (if necessary in your state). Vote in the primaries. Vote in the general election. Do everything you can to take our country back.

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Between the lines
Tuesday, March 18, 2003

During an unprecedented speech to the entire world last night President Bush assured the Iraqi people that “If we must begin a military campaign, it will be directed against the lawless men who rule your country and not against you.”

He went on to declare “In free Iraq there will be no more wars of aggression against your neighbors, no more poison factories, no more executions of dissidents, no more torture chambers and rape rooms. The tyrant will soon be gone. The day of your liberation is near.”

In the short term – after the death and destruction that will accompany the war – an interim government will be established in Iraq. That government will be comprised of three administrative regions, which on paper will look very much like the current map of Iraq. Former US Generals will administer two of the regions – essentially the same areas that are the northern and southern no-fly zones today. Barbara Bodine, former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, will administer the third, central region including Baghdad. Over all of them will be the head of the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, former US Army Lieutenant General Jay Garner.

Mr. Garner has significant baggage. He was responsible for the deployment and evaluation of the experimental Patriot Antimissile Missile System during Gulf War I. He worked closely with the Israeli Defense Force to assess the success of the system. Some might say a little too closely. Following the war, having retired from military service, Mr. Garner served as president of SY Coleman, a division of defense contractor L-3 Communications. The company specializes in missile defense systems – the same systems that have been fast-tracked for deployment around the US without testing by October of next year.

Is this the man we really want calling the shots in Iraq during an occupation? Can he be trusted to protect Iraqi oil from scheming corporations and governments and uphold President Bush’s assertion that they are “a source of wealth that belongs to the Iraqi people”?

Mr. Garner will lead Iraq’s interim government, but someone much more disturbing will likely lead Iraq after the US occupation: Nizar al-Khazraji.

Nizar al-Khazraji, the former Iraqi Army Chief of Staff, is suspected of war crimes against Iraqi Kurds in the 1980’s. Up until Monday, March 17 2003 he was under house arrest in Denmark. That country had dared to prosecute Nizar al-Khazraji for war crimes despite strong US diplomatic efforts to spare him the burden of having to face trial for his alleged crimes against humanity. He has since disappeared.

In short, Iraq will be ruled by an unscrupulous agent of the US Department of Defense for the foreseeable future, and then the reigns of power will be handed over to one of the chief architects of Saddam Hussein’s regime of terror.

This is what liberation means to our administration.

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800 pound increments
Monday, March 17, 2003

I had a vivid dream the other night. I was looking at a map of a small city, and discussing a political scandal with someone off-screen. Yes, I dream in movie shots. I blame my childhood nanny: Zenith.

The scandal involved two judges on the local supreme court. The judges had been criminally negligent in their duties while hearing an important case. Each night, after courtroom deliberations, the judges would go to a pub where they drank the night away while discussing the case. The scandal emerged when someone taped their conversations. The tapes revealed that the judges were completely ignorant of the evidence and facts of the case, but were ready to pass judgment anyway.

On the map I could see two dots (the judges) moving as if they were being tracked by some all-seeing eye. They were stumbling home from the pub, and I could hear them talking. More dots appeared, and moved to intercept the judges. These dots were federal agents. As the two sets of dots converged on the map, I was transported into the scene on the street.

The judges had disappeared, and I was alone with the agents. All of them were armed with sub-machine guns.

A derelict brick building - an old mill – stood across the cobblestone street from us. Planks of wood secured the only door into the mill. Something moved behind them in the darkness.

The wood was torn aside by a man in some sort of odd, red and black uniform as he emerged from the doorway. He was not alone. More armed men in uniform, poured from the door and fired on the agents. Under fire, I grabbed for a gun dropped by a fallen agent. As the agents and I shot into the group of attackers, several huge gorillas charged out of the building, and joined the melee. The more we fired, the more beasts appeared. Our weapons were over-heating and jamming. There were dozens of them; We were quickly outnumbered.

The gorillas were on us. One rushed toward me roaring, its maw filled with fangs; I felt its breath. The thing’s black eyes were intelligent, and furious - hateful. I had already dropped my first gun, and picked-up a second. It was already jammed. The agents were being torn to pieces. Then, I woke up.

I wish I could wake-up again.

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This has the makings of something big
Friday, March 14, 2003

An un-scheduled press conference (and in the Rose Garden no less)? This is odd in and of itself in the weird world that is the White House press corps, but I don't think anyone knew how strange it would actually turn out.

The President held the conference accompanied by Secretary of State Colin Powell. The reporters present assumed the conference perhaps had something to do with the equally odd surprise announcement of an "emergency summit" which will occur Sunday in the Azores. Yeah, this is when I start calling people to make sure I haven't finally lost touch with reality. Well, it seems I'm still sane - I wish I could say the same for our government.

So about this press conference: I was listening to Maine Public Radio and the host of the program breaks in to inform listeners that they would be switching over to National Public Radio momentarily to cover a press conference during which the President and the Secretary of State were expected to make some remarks.

NPR takes over. The conference begins. The President makes a short 2 or 3 minute speech about Israel and Palestine living in peace with one another, and then he turns and leaves! Colin Powell turned on his heel to follow the President as the press corps began shouting questions about the summit. The reaction from the NPR host in the studio and reporters on the scene was more or less similar to mine: WTF?

Yeah, this whole thing is getting a little out of hand at this point. Something has gone terribly, terribly wrong for the administration's plan to wage indiscriminant war in the Middle East. I'm laughing at their superior intellect.

Here's the break down: Bush had planned to visit Blair - those plans were scrubbed this week as it appeared increasingly unlikely that the UN Security Council would bend to US pressure on the Second Resolution. Blair of course is suffering continued attacks at home over his pro-war stance, and is being condemned by his own party as Bush's lap dog. Naturally something had to give eventually. Remember, this was a strange pairing to begin with; Blair is essentially Briton's Bill Clinton.

So what happens? A press conference in which Bush tries to turn down the heat he's taking from ignoring the war going on right now between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and also to introduce an interesting turn of phrase to the current geo-political lexicon: "step-by-step." Could it be that the US is ready to pursue the British compromise plan for dealing with Iraq? Will it float in the Security Council?

It's a hell of a gamble. This is after all a pissing contest in the end, and Bush has suffered some major set-backs already. First he wanted to act without UN support, but was convinced by Powell and Blair to form a real international coalition before unilaterally deposing the government of one of the wealthiest sovereign nations on Earth. Then there was the tussle over the first resolution, 1441. Bush took it in stride and waited. He was sure that by the time he had his troops in place the UN would be ready to play ball. What he didn't count on was Russia. Sure, France had given the US a hard time with the first resolution, but the administration had figured Russia would play along. They figured wrong. With Russia on its side, France was able to form a voting block. Hell, even China started to toy with the idea of opposing the US. So the Second Resolution is dead in the water. What's next?

Meeting in the Azores is interesting symbolically. Neither Bush nor Blair is visiting the other's nation and twisting arms. No, they're both traveling half-way to meet one another. They are committed to war as a final option, and to make every diplomatic attempt to solve this situation in the meantime. That's the message they're trying to send anyway. The result will either be a new push for the British step-by-step plan (which France has already balked at), or a claim that everything that could be done was, and that unilateral action is now permissible by international law. (There's also the wild outside chance that Saddam will touch off a conflict himself before either the UN or the US makes a move. I believe the world would be highly suspicious of US covert action in this case however given the number of special forces troops already on the ground in Iraq).

Either way, war in Iraq will happen. But it's still nice to see Bush have to jump through these hoops. I only wish there were some way to convince him to just bring the troops home, and re-think his global strategy. Clearly, Bush has been a gambling man throughout these several months of diplomacy, and he hasn't won a single hand yet. Can there be any more indication that his administration's policies are simply unsound?

What happens when the President bets the farm?

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Waiting
Thursday, March 13, 2003

The news cycle has been dragged to a razor's edge. Everyone on Earth is poised on the edge of their seats, and the second shoe has yet to hit the floor.

It's maddening - this waiting. We're powerless stop it, but we know what's coming. Each day I wake-up to find that no bombs were dropped in the dead of night. Should I be thankful that no one has died yet, or should I mourn them for the brutal death that awaits? Is there anymore that I can do than hope their deaths are quick?

As terrible as it is, many people will feel a sense of relief when the killing begins. The wait will be over, and everyone can get back to their "normal" lives; or so the administration would like us all to believe. It's a selfish and arrogant delusion.

September 11th changed the world we live in. Forever. Nothing will return to the way it was before. No matter how many people die, or what laws are passed, things will never be the same. Take a look around - at the news and the protests - this is the world we live in. Conspiracy theorists and religious fanatics are only the beginning; tremors of the unrest to come.

Al-Qa'ida was the first, but others will threaten the United States. They will be crushed. In every case our government will demand more power and more money to protect us: its helpless citizens. Who would deny them? Who could? Eventually law abiding folks will begin to feel the slightest pressure of the walls they have allowed to be built around them. These will be the labor pains of the birth of tyranny.

How many of us could survive the microscope of a bureaucrat? Taxes, rolling stops, travel expenses - one way or another we're all guilty in the eyes of the law. Sooner or later, the proper authorities will have something on everyone. We won't end up in a gulag, but can we say the same for our neighbors? What happens when the police ask for your help to finger someone? Make a statement here, or make it down at the station - the choice is up to you.

I'll still be waiting for that second shoe - even after the bombs start falling - it doesn't have too much further to go.

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Three Words: Gelled Slurry Explosive
Tuesday, March 11, 2003

The first Gulf War was characterized by surgical Tomahawk missile strikes penetrating individually targeted air shafts like some strange homage to Lucas. The U.S. Department of Defense has promised a second Gulf War will be very different. For Gulf War II: The Empire Strikes Back, our forces are tasked with seizing the city of Baghdad; One way, or the other.

The DOD has deduced this goal can be reached in one of two ways.

The first plan of attack is a psychological operation dubbed “Shock and Awe.” The intent of this strategy is to force the surrender of Iraqi forces before U.S. troops on the ground need to fire a single shot. Our military planners are hoping to march into Baghdad without a fight with a stunning display of unadulterated power. Central to this ambitious plan to take Baghdad is a bomb…A very big bomb.

Nicknamed “Big Blue,” the largest non-nuclear bomb ever created will be utilized as one of our military’s primary psychological warfare agents. Its purpose is to scare the living shit out of anyone who witnesses its detonation. The DOD believes that even a video of a test of such a device might be enough to shake the loyalties of some Iraqi soldiers and conscripts. That must be some kind of bomb, eh?

Well, it is. Big Blue tips the scales at 21,000 pounds (some reports put it at 30,000 lbs.) – far heavier than its predecessor the BLU-82 “Daisy Cutter.” Some of you may remember the devastation wrought by these comparatively puny 15,000 pound dumb-bombs during the first Gulf War.

Not only does Big Blue pack a bigger punch, it’s also a lot smarter than the Daisy Cutter; It’s guided by GPS. That’s right, for the first time ever we will have precision destruction on the scale of a small nuclear weapon without that nasty world-wide public relations disaster aftertaste!

So what the hell is Gelled Slurry Explosive? Remember Oklahoma City…That whole fertilizer bomb in a U-Haul thing? That explosion was caused by Ammonium Nitrate – the primary ingredient in Gelled Slurry Explosive. The blast produced by the 4,800 pounds of Ammonium Nitrate in that truck was powerful enough to take down half of a nine storey building, leave a 40 foot crater in the street with a depth of about 7 feet, and kill 168 people. Care to imagine what 21,000 to 30,000 pounds of GSE can do? Me neither.

These bombs are GPS guided; They will have targets. For the shock and awe plan, those targets will be remote, unpopulated areas outside of Baghdad. Places where the blast will be visible to Iraqi troops inside the city limits (which by the way is one-and-a-half times as large as New York city). The fireball created will be of a size comparable to a small nuclear blast – probably so comparable that some troops in the city may in fact believe them to be nuclear weapons. This is a cunning use of psychological warfare to be sure – but what if it fails to convince the troops that all is lost, and that surrender is their best option?

This brings me to the DOD’s second option for capturing Baghdad – level it into submission.

If used inside Baghdad, a Big Blue could level most of a city block. Collateral damage? No. This is collateral disintegration. Should the psy-ops gambit of shock and awe fail in those first nights of bombing, our military may be forced to consider a “no body, no crime” policy inside Baghdad city limits. Would the world care if parts of the city were leveled by non-nuclear weapons? Is there anything they could do if they did care?

Street-to-street and building-to-building warfare can only occur if there are streets and buildings. If these bombs are authorized for use as target killing ordinance above and beyond their use as psychological warfare agents, parts of Baghdad - those deemed non-critical to occupation and rebuilding - could be reduced to small fields of ash and rubble.

One way or another, every opportunity to protect U.S. troops from fighting a lengthy urban battle will be taken. If the psy-ops option fails, and considerable resistance remains in Baghdad after the first week of conflict, we may very well witness the first large scale destruction of a city since World War II.

Our arrogance will be rewarded a thousand-fold.

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It’s the time of the season for change
Wednesday, March 05, 2003

In managing any addiction, the very first step is to accept that you have a problem. My name is Ernest, and I’m a Political Science junkie.

My computer is on before my coffee pot – it's the last thing I turn off before going to bed (typically right after scanning several news sites just one last time for the night).

Clearly I have a problem.

Quitting is not an option. Political Science has been so much of my life for so long, I don’t know that I can survive without it now. It’s not a love, it’s a necessity. I need it more than food, water, or money.

I struggled for a long time with my addiction; I suppressed it, I denied it. But that time is over. From now on I will control my needs, and I will direct them.

This is no longer a reactive blog. I will not sit here and allow my country to be high jacked and steered into oblivion by neoconservative fanatics. I am an American: A free citizen with a voice and a vote, and I will use them both to hinder, to delay, and to stop the current administration from doing any more irreparable harm to our nation.

I dedicate this blog to change. The first step on the path back to America will be the 2004 Presidential Election. George W. Bush must not “win” that election.

No real alternative to the Bush administration will emerge from the Republican party. Their members have long since been beaten into submission. Not even John McCain can break the administration’s strangle hold on American conservatives – of which I am one.

Third party candidates will have their day, but this is not it. The 2004 election is too important for the long term future of our country to experiment with alternatives. Vote Green, or Reform, or Cool Moose at home – but reserve your presidential vote for someone who can win.

I’ve examined the Democratic field of contenders – it’s not pretty. Even worse, by the time next November rolls around, America is going to be ass deep in shit. Our troops will be engaged in Iraq, the North Korean problem will still persist, and at home our economy will probably be about as vibrant as it is today.

We need change like we’ve never needed it before. The election in November is our last best chance to get it. Governor Howard Dean of Vermont is the candidate who can give us what we need. Expect to see his name more on this blog in the future.

Have no fear, I’ll still be devoting plenty of time and energy to foreign policy and current events (I said I was taking the first step in overcoming this addiction), but I’ll also be paying very close attention to Dr. Dean. I hope you will do the same.

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This is bad
Tuesday, March 04, 2003

The United States continues to ignore diplomatic options in its handling of the North Korean problem. Time and again our administration has ignored pleas from the international community and policy experts within our own government to engage North Korea in a meaningful dialogue before the situation escalates beyond non-military resolution.

Today, as the U.S. makes the most of the North Korean intercept of one of our reconnaissance planes - which is a much more common occurrence than most of the American public likely realizes - the administration has further isolated North Korea by deploying long range bombers to Guam.

Add this to the fast track deployment of an untested missile defense system on our west coast, and the administration’s long term policy plans for the region begin to come into focus. But there’s something here that just doesn’t sit right for me: Guam.

I understand that these are long range bombers, but why Guam? Why not Japan? Hell, why not South Korea? If the administration is honestly attempting to intimidate North Korea into compliance with the non-proliferation treaty while refusing to debate a non-aggression pact, why not put those bombers right in North Korea’s backyard?

I have a couple of thoughts on this.

First, it may be that Japan doesn’t want to play host to these U.S. forces due to fears of North Korean retribution. This makes sense, but seeing as how Japan would probably be a target of North Korean aggression should a conflict occur anyway, I find it unlikely that Japan would refuse the back-up protection.

Secondly, it may be that the administration is sensitive to inadvertently touching off a conflict with an increasingly skittish North Korea by pushing too hard, too fast. Given the complete lack of subtly in the administration’s past policy calls, I doubt this as well.

That leaves us with a third possibility – the one I consider most likely: North Korea’s missile technology is much more advanced than our administration is willing to admit. If this is true, and targets in South Korea and Japan are within range, then Guam is the only place we can put our bombers.

This would also explain an unusual story from the Korea Times today that stated that a warhead launched in a North Korean missile test was found in Alaska. If true, this has dramatic implications for our current foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region.

I’d like to believe that the Alaska story is a bit of over-zealous reporting on the part of the South Korean press, but the Guam thing is really bugging me.

I sincerely hope that I am very, very wrong on this. If I’m not, and the administration continues on its present course, there will be a nuclear crisis in a matter of months. It doesn’t matter which nation is the ultimate victim of that crisis; it may be the U.S., it may be Japan or South Korea, it may even be North Korea itself. The bottom line is that it doesn’t have to happen at all.

Unless our administration pulls its head out of its ass, expect to become well versed in the economic consequences of fighting a two-front war in the very near future.

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Weapons of Mass Destruction

What are WMD? How effective must a weapon be to earn this classification? Or is it rather an issue of weapon “type” – are chemical and biological weapons automatically WMD?

These are not foolish questions; their answers are not as obvious as they might seem. Realizing this, the leaders of our world wanted to be sure that everyone on Earth was crystal clear on these definitions. That's why they enacted The Chemical Weapons Convention.

Chemical and biological weapons are illegal under international law. They are bad – one might even say evil.

Is it surprising then to learn that the US is preparing to use the toxic riot-control agents CS gas and pepper spray in Iraq in contravention of the Chemical Weapons Convention…”

In case that's not enough, the U.S. has also reserved the right to flout international law with impunity by employing "Calmative" gases, "similar to the one that killed 120 hostages in the Moscow theatre siege last year."

I read a story tonight about the possible U.S. and U.K. troop assignments for Gulf War II. The story stated that U.K. troops will not participate in an assault on Baghdad. At the time, I found that odd. This will be the most difficult – and very probably the bloodiest – battle of the war, why relegate all of the U.K. troops to securing the Southern no-fly zone, and perhaps Basra? It seemed a strange waste of resources to me then, but no longer.

The following analysis puts the U.K.’s scheduled absence from the Battle of Baghdad into perspective:

“Professor Julian Perry Robinson, one of the world's foremost authorities on the [chemical weapons] convention, said: "Legally speaking, Iraq would be totally justified in releasing chemical weapons over the UK if the alliance uses them in Baghdad.”

It’s apparent to me now that the U.S. is ready to legitimize the use of chemical weapons during conflict, and the U.K. wants no part of it. I applaud the U.K. for having the strength and the foresight to protect its citizens and its international standing as a rational, peace-loving nation by refusing to take part in this crime against humanity.

What was it George said the other day? “This is the first war of the 21st century.” I’m so glad that we’re getting off to a good start! This will come back to haunt us.

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It’s quiet…Too quiet
Monday, March 03, 2003

After a flurry of diplomatic activity last week, things were oddly quiet in the news this past weekend. A captured al-Qa'ida “mastermind,” and the Iraqi destruction of several Al Samoud missiles dominated the newscape. Monday had little more to offer, but it appears that a few of the more obscure developments from last week - having fermented and stewed - are now being served up for general consumption. Something else is on the horizon.

The resignation of U.S. diplomat John Brady Kiesling has finally made the mainstream news here in the states. The New York Times has decided to cover the story without actually covering it by printing his letter of resignation without editorial comment. A well-respected diplomat has terminated his 20 career in matters of state as a form of protest to his government. He’s not a star athlete, or a Hollywood stud. Is anyone else ashamed for never having heard of him? What work has he done for our nation? Was he a good man? Did he represent the United States as the land of the free, or did he use his place of power for personal gain? I’ll likely never know, and that disturbs me. If he was the man he presents himself to be in his letter of resignation, then I mourn our nation’s loss. The Times is practically an institution here in the U.S. – I expected better of them as journalists. Instead, they’re silent on this issue.

Today, there is also talk of war. Not talk of others talking about war, but talk of actual war. It seems that the U.S. has finally rounded the bend on this situation. The debate – regardless of its relevance - is over. With or without the support of its citizens, our nation is resigned to war; all that’s left is the screaming. Gulf War II is set to start sometime around the weekend of March 15th.

Karl Rove’s canceled fundraising trip to New Hampshire is one indicator that points to the start of hostilities. Rove was expected to collect as much as 250,000,000 for President Bush’s re-election campaign on that trip. It seems the administration is sensitive to the image of passing the hat while people are dying for its diplomatic failures.

That week is also significant because of the administration's push for the final U.N. Security Council to issue its final decision on “The Second Resolution.” President Bush has repeatedly voiced his willingness to go to war – whatever the outcome of that vote - in recent weeks. Despite this, the administration will wait until after the ballots are counted, and the voices of the world’s free nations have been heard. After that, the U.S. will be diplomatically free to ignore those voices, and pursue any course of action it deems fit.

To ensure the U.S. people are as resigned to war as is possible, I expect the administration to seed the media with banal al-Qa'ida news, threat warnings, and propaganda. The rest of the news cycle between now and the start of the initial assault will be filled in with local fluff pieces. Thoughtful analysis regarding the administration’s foreign policy – if it ever existed in the first place – will trickle to a stop as the media shifts into its own war footing. Substantial coverage of any war preparations will be replaced by up to the minute updates detailing how many pizzas were delivered the Pentagon and the Whitehouse.

Those of us who had hoped for peace are held hostage – forced to watch our nation’s descent into war on CNN. The regime in power continues to ignore our needs and our will. The Leviathan is beyond our control. Despite my education in the fields of political science, international relations, history, and military science I have failed to construct a justifiable case for war. I have tried to see their logic, and have found that there is none which can absolve us from the blame of the murder of innocents.

I was once proud of my country, but that’s changed. I still have hope that the U.S. can be a great and wonderful place again, but my hopes of living to see that day are continuously diminished. Madison believed that no nation can endure continuous war while protecting the rights of its citizens. I fear the worst for us. Our freedoms are being stripped away in name of security; our rights will follow. Will we still have the gall to call ourselves Americans even then?

My nation is dying, and I am powerless to stop it.

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"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty. When the loyal opposition dies, I think the soul of America dies with it."

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